Doubling of cancer by 2050

Researchers: Life expectancy and lifestyle influence cancer risk

03/28/2012

The number of cancers is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades. The cancer researcher Dr. Dr. Dr. med. Graham Colditz from Washington University in St. Louis found the unhealthy lifestyle and rising life expectancy.

By the year 2050, the number of cancer patients worldwide is expected to double, according to Dr. Colditz. In addition to rising life expectancy, factors such as smoking, obesity and physical inactivity play a crucial role, explained the expert. To offer a healthy lifestyle the best conditions to minimize personal cancer risk. But many people do not use these possibilities for cancer prevention, Colditz and colleagues in a recent article in the journal „Nature Translational Medicine“

Tobacco consumption is the main cause of cancer
While in the past only a few people had cancer, because the majority simply did not get old enough or died from diseases such as plague or smallpox, improved medical care and correspondingly longer life expectancy have led to a significant increase in cancer for some 60 years. However, according to Graham Colditz, unhealthy lifestyles also play a role that should not be underestimated. If the trend continues, it will become „to double the number of cancer diagnoses by the year 2050“, write the scientists from Washington University. The „Main cause“ for the rise of the cancers „is the tobacco consumption“, stressed Colditz and underpinned his statement based on the example of the US states Utah and Kentucky. While only 9.8 percent of the population smoked in Utah in 2009, the proportion of smokers in Kentucky was more than 25 percent, Colditz said. This difference is also reflected in the US Cancer Registry, where Kentucky estimates the number of deaths from lung cancer at 97.7 per 100,000, while the figure for Utah is only 24.7 per 100,000, Colditz continued. Because the death toll from lung cancer in Utah is about 73 percent lower, „We estimate that 75 percent of lung cancer cases in the US could be prevented if smoking was not allowed“, explained the US researcher. Overall, tobacco consumption accounts for about one third of all cancer cases in the US.

Overweight and lack of exercise as cancer risk factors
As a further significant cancer risk factor, the US researchers named overweight and obesity, which in their estimation, 20 percent of cancer cases in the United States. Of these cancers could be avoided by reducing the excess weight probably half, according to the assessment of cancer researchers from the Washington University. According to Graham Colditz and colleagues, physical inactivity is responsible for around five percent of cancer cases in the US, with 85 percent of these being avoided by regular physical activity. According to the current state of knowledge, viruses are also the cause of about five percent of cancer cases, but these could be avoided 100 percent, the scientists write. Alcohol consumption accounts for around three percent of cancer cases and excessive sunbathing or ionizing radiation accounts for around two percent of cancers, Graham and colleagues continue.

Cancer prevention should start in the boyhood age
As one of the main obstacles in the fight against cancer, the US scientists describe the late beginning with the preventive measures. Long was known, „that a change in lifestyle is possible and that such changes reduce cancer risk. But the basic question is whether we intervene early enough in life“, stressed Colditz. Thus, the foundation for various cancers is laid early in life, with the prevention should actually begin before. The basis for pancreatic cancer often arises in the period between 13 and 28 years, the risk of breast cancer can be reduced by more than 25 percent before the onset of the first menopause until the menopause and alcohol in the youth phase cause an increased risk of breast cancer precursors, the Example of cancer researchers to illustrate the need for early prevention measures. The aforementioned cancers show that cancer prevention measures should explicitly address younger people in order to achieve a long-term reduction in cancer risk. Colditz and colleagues continue.

Moral commitment to act now
However, the researchers would have to push aside their dispute over detail issues and jointly improve cancer prevention in order to avoid the expected increase in cancer, Dr. Colditz. „We have a moral obligation to act now to reduce the burden later on“, so his call to colleagues. However, the cancer researcher also referred to the problems with the resistance of certain lobby associations, such as the tobacco industry, who are defending themselves to the utmost against the limitations of their business model. Here, the policy must - as has already happened in many countries in tobacco smoking - with regulations and laws tougher to achieve a reduction in the risk of cancer, said the US researchers. (Fp)

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Picture: Gerd Altmann