Will people's life expectancy decrease again in the near future?

Where is the average life expectancy in 2040??

Researchers estimate that life expectancy for men and women will rise by 4.4 years on average worldwide by 2040. However, it is possible that future decisions on public health and policy decisions could reduce life expectancy in nearly half of the world's countries.

Researchers at the University of Washington found in their recent research that various decisions by the year 2040 may lead to a reduction in life expectancy. The physicians published the results of their study in the English-language journal "The Lancet".

Experts use a model for their study

For their study, the researchers created a model that represents the health consequences and main causes of death for the year 2040 in 195 countries. The model was based on a previous study that analyzed such factors in global populations between 1990 and 2016. The model also considered 79 important health factors, such as smoking, body mass index, clean water and good sanitary conditions, along with other variables such as fertility measurements, income and education. By using different numerical models, the experts calculated three different scenarios that included the most likely, the best and worst human health.

What did the results look like in the most likely scenario??

In the most likely scenario, the eight most common causes of death in 2040 are expected to be ischemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory tract infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes and road traffic injuries. In this scenario, life expectancy in the US in 2040 is estimated to be 79.8 years, say the physicians. This equates to an improvement in life expectancy of 1.1 years from the 2016 estimate. However, other parts of the world would experience greater improvements in life expectancy. For example, life expectancy in Syria is expected to increase from 68.2 years in 2016 to 78.6 years in 2040. Life expectancy will rise to more than 85 years for men and women in Japan, Singapore and Spain and over 80 for 59 other countries, including China. While this scenario predicts an improvement in life expectancy for most countries, it also indicated that deaths from several non-infectious diseases will increase, the researchers reported.

How did a good or bad health work??

In the so-called "improved human health scenario", men could have an average life expectancy of 7.8 years by 2040, and women's life expectancy would have increased by an average of 7.2 years. However, life expectancy will decline in almost half of the countries studied in the poorer health scenario. Perhaps most strikingly, HIV / AIDS deaths have increased by 120 percent in this scenario.

Health systems need to take into account several factors

Whether we experience significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health determinants. The main health factors that can lead to premature death are high blood pressure, high body mass index, high blood sugar, and tobacco and alcohol intake, the researchers say.

Differences between high and low income countries remain high

The report also predicted that life expectancy differences between high and low income countries would decrease by 2040 in the most likely scenario. Nevertheless, the inequalities will continue to be great, say the experts. These countries must help people to manage the biggest risks, especially smoking and poor nutrition. Technical innovations and higher health care spending are particularly crucial to helping these countries, the authors write. (As)