Study consequences of global warming even more dramatic than previously thought

New climate insights: is the current situation more critical than expected?

An international study reveals critical factors for climate change. The early onset of spring causes plants around the world to start growing earlier and earlier. This was initially considered positive as the general assumption was that it would bind more carbon (CO₂) from the Earth's atmosphere. An international research team now disproves this assumption and shows that the premature growth of plants in the course of the year, not more, but less CO₂ is bound. The result: The situation of the world's climate is even tense than previously thought!

Until now, the prevailing opinion was that plant growth, which starts earlier, leads to increased biomass, which can then bind more carbon. In this effect, many people saw a possible slowdown in climate change. International researchers with the participation of the University of Augsburg, the University of Leeds and the Vienna University of Technology as well as research groups from the USA took a closer look at this effect and were shocked to discover that the opposite is the case. The scientists published their findings in the renowned science journal "nature".

An international research team recently came up with an inconvenient finding: Early plant growth triggered by high spring temperatures leads to decreased growth in the subsequent summer and fall. Overall, the plants can thereby bind less carbon from the atmosphere. The result: climate change is accelerated. (Image: gagarych / fotolia.com)

Evaluated with the satellite

Using satellite data, the team was able to identify and evaluate the green biomass of the past 30 years. "We analyzed satellite imagery from the last thirty years - the entire globe north of the 30th parallel was studied, from southern Europe and Japan to the tundra regions in the far north," explains lead author Professor. Wolfgang Buermann in a press release on the study results.

Elaborate analysis

The researchers were able to detect the growth course of the vegetation by means of light reflections. Where there is a lot of green biomass, green light is absorbed and infrared light is reflected, explain the scientists. Thus, point by point around the globe can be determined when and how much photosynthesis takes place - and also how much carbon is bound. From this analysis, it can be seen that in many areas, advanced spring results in reduced biomass production in the following summer and fall.

It is necessary to rethink

"The climate models used so far have to be adapted - the global climate situation is even more tense than previously thought," stresses climate expert Buermann. The study is the first research to investigate the effect of premature plant growth on a hemispheric scale. The data clearly shows that the northern hemisphere is actually greener in spring. However, this effect is usually associated with less biomass in the subsequent summer and fall.

Why is this effect??

So, after a green spring, a dry summer and autumn often come. The exact reasons for this are still unclear. Researchers suggest that increased plant growth in spring increases water demand and evaporation. As a result, the soil moisture would decrease and the plants will not have enough water available in the further course. The study team also considers it possible that certain plants only have a naturally predetermined growth period that can not be prolonged.

Violent consequences for our climate

"These mechanisms are complicated and regionally different," adds co-author Dr. Matthias Forkel from the Vienna University of Technology. Although many factors are unknown, however, the data clearly show that plant productivity declines in years with a warm spring. Previous climate models have not even considered this effect and would have to be adjusted - in an unpleasant direction. "We have to assume that the consequences of global warming will be even more dramatic than previously calculated," concludes the climate expert Professor Dr. med. Wolfgang Buermann. (Vb)