Strong increase of obese

Researchers expect large increase in obese by 2030

07/20/2014

By the year 2030, the number of obese people will increase by 30 to 80 percent. This was the result of an analysis by researchers from the Rostock Center for the Study of Demographic Change. Accordingly, there will be more and more elderly and obese people in Germany in the future.

Treatment costs of obese people could push the healthcare system to its limits
In 2009, approximately 6.1 million people (18 percent) of over-50s were considered obese. As the Rostock researchers Christina Westphal and Gabriele Doblhammer report, the number of people with obesity could increase by 30 to 80 percent by 2030. As a basis for their investigation, the experts used the increase in the number of obese people between 1999 and 2009. They calculated that it will come to the same pace by 2030 to an increase of 80 percent, in the best-case scenario by 30 percent. As a result, around 15.8 million (48.2 percent) of over 50-year-old Germans were already carrying too many kilos in 2009. „This is because more and more people will reach an age where being overweight is particularly common“, reports Westphal. In addition, there is a lack of exercise and an unhealthy diet with fast food and finished products.

Obesity promotes the development of serious sequelae such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and osteoarthritis. The immense treatment costs could quickly push the health system to its limits. In view of such forecasts, the scientist calls for the expansion of prevention programs.

For their analysis, Westphal and Doblhammer used the body mass index (BMI) as a guide for body weight. A BMI between 18.5 and 24.9 is considered normal, between 25 and 29.9 it points to overweight and downwards of 30, people are considered to be obese.

Obesity is increasing worldwide
In international comparison, Germany occupies one of the top places in the number of obese. At present, there are still more overweight elderly people in Spain, but by 2020, the highest percentage of obese people in Europe can be found in Europe, according to the experts. Germany will "but probably also be behind the USA until 2030".

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) „Between 1980 and 2008, the proportion of obese men with a BMI of over 30 increased from 4.8 to 9.8 percent worldwide. For women, the proportion rose from 7.9 to 13.8 percent“, write the researchers. (Ag)