Birth rate in Germany is rising again

Young women get more children again

05/09/2011

According to a study by the Max Planck Institute in Rostock, young women in Germany receive more children than older people. Accordingly, there is currently a demographic turnaround in the birth rate. According to the researchers, the parental allowance and the expansion of kindergartens could actually contribute to increasing the German birth rate, despite previous allegations. However, there is no scientific evidence for the thesis, as a significant increase can also be observed in the other EU countries.

Young women get more children
On average, young women in Germany receive more children than older people did. This was the result of a demographic study by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock. The authors of the study stated that the results show a turnaround „at the birth cohorts around 1970“ is recognizable. Women who were born before 1970 and are now 40 years old statistically receive 1.5 and 1.6 children, respectively. Women born after that are likely to have more children, as the research team led by Joshua Goldstein and Michaela Kreyenfeld in the journal Population and Development Review explained. The scientists are the first in their field to notice a trend reversal in birth rates in Germany. The team suspects that the turnaround should be seen in the context of a changed family policy. "The trend reversal in final birth rates could be related to changes in recent family policies," Goldstein said. Women who gave birth in the early 1960s still had significantly fewer children. From the birth years mid-70s, the number of children rose again, so Goldstein.

The parental allowance, which was introduced in 2007 and the beginning of the expansion of kindergartens in 2008, have now produced the first positive effects. So far, statisticians and critics have assumed that the family policy of the former Federal Family Minister Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) run into the void. For this reason, several politicians have called for the abolition of the parental allowance, which in the strict sense is not a social benefit, because the parental allowance is calculated on the basis of income upwards. According to the scientists, a slight demographic trend can now be observed. The investigations refer to statistical evaluations of the data of the official birth statistics. Although mothers get their children later and later, because many care about their education and career opportunities first, but the trend of recent years to fewer babies does not continue.

No exact data
However, the researchers were unable to provide more precise measurement data. With the older women one can determine exactly how many children they have born so far. However, the younger women are, the more difficult it becomes to grasp the calculations exactly, as the researchers emphasized. But one „Trend reversal is very likely“, so Goldstein. „That's an estimate“ emphasizes Michaela Kreyenfeld. This value is consumed because women always have a child later. If the distortion is calculated out, you get a higher birth rate. As part of the calculations, the researchers used time series that showed the age and births of the first, second and third children of women. The value is calculated on an annual basis to show the current birth behavior. The actual birth behavior can only be calculated once all the final data has been collected.

In 2008 mothers were 27.5 years old on birth of their first child in eastern Germany and 28.7 years old in the west. 11 years ago, the women were 1.4 and 1.3 years younger at the first birth. The previous evaluations of East and West Germany had previously been based on older surveys. In East Germany the birth rate was 1.46. Here, the day care network, which was already well developed in GDR times, dominated. In addition, families in the new federal states find it much easier to find a kindergarten place, because the share of families in moving away to the West, as opposed to offering childcare, is rising. In the West, the rate so far has been 1.39.

Connection of parental allowance and birth rate not proven
Proven the relationship between family policy or trend reversal is not proven. The researchers also refer to this. Because even in the other European countries can be observed that women of younger birth cohorts get more children. It is to be remembered that benefits such as parental benefit are unknown in other EU countries. Therefore, although a demographic trend reversal is evident, but a clear connection only guess. (Sb)

Also read:
The proportion of fathers in parental allowance is rising
Population in Germany is falling slightly

Picture: Matthias Hübner