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Ubble online test should show the life expectancy
A new risk calculator on the Internet currently provides much discussion. By means of a test on the website ubble.co.uk, which contains eleven questions for women and for men thirteen questions, the individual statistical life expectancy for people between 40 and 70 years is determined. The experts argue about the benefits of the risk calculator.
Life expectancy is also dependent on social factors
For many people it is a tempting idea to know their own life expectancy, for others it is almost a horror idea. The risk calculator, which researchers at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm have developed on the basis of data from the UK Biobank, is intended to do just that. On the basis of different questions about the state of health, lifestyle and family structures, such as "How many cars do you own?", "How many children did you have?" And "Have you ever received a cancer diagnosis from a doctor?" individual health risk can be determined and statements can be made as to whether or not someone will leave their life within that period.
The Swedish researchers' online test predicts the risk of death over the next five years. (Image: jrwasserman / fotolia.com) The underlying database includes health data from more than 500,000 volunteers. Erik Ingelsson, who led the investigation, and his team have extensively evaluated this data from 2007 to 2010. During this time, 8,500 people died. In the next step, the researchers identified 655 different factors and examined whether they were suitable for predicting the risk of dying. Depending on the country, these may differ from each other. The researchers present their results in the current issue of the journal "Lancet".
Life expectancy test takes just five minutes
The online test developed from the results of the researchers takes only five minutes. "The fact that the score can be measured online in a short questionnaire without the need for lab tests or physical exams is an exciting development," said study co-author Anna Ganna, told Daily Mail..
"This is the first study of its kind, based on a very large sample evaluation and is not limited to specific populations or individual types of risk or even requires laboratory tests," Ingelsson said in a conversation with the newspaper.
The researchers are aware that the questions surprise laymen in part. However, as they report, these are much more meaningful than laboratory tests. Ingelsson points in this connection to the question, after the assessment of one's own state of health. "You know yourself best. Answering how you feel is bringing together many different aspects - whether you have been ill, perhaps how fit you are, how healthy you are, "explains Ingelsson. "That's why predictions are possible."
Age and gender are only used as starting points in determining the risk of death. As the researchers continue to report, smoking emerged as the indicator with the greatest predictive power in people without severe pre-existing conditions. Also, the living conditions, accidents or illnesses of the last two years as well as the self-assessment of one's own health make the result more reliable. The possibly most surprising question in the "How would you rate your average walking pace" test also turned out to be a reliable predictor of the risk of death, said Ingelsson and his team. Thus, a slow walker shows a higher risk of death than a person who goes briskly.
What is the value of knowledge about your own risk of dying??
"But what good is it for every individual to take the Ubble test?", Ferdinand Gerlach, President of the German Society for General Medicine and Family Medicine, introduces in the room "Spiegel Online". For the physician, it is important that those who perform the test always remember that the calculated risk value is based only on statistics. The result is a probability value. People for whom the test identifies a high risk of dying could still live for decades. "Just think of Helmut Schmidt," says Gerlach by way of example. Despite the heavy smoking he was well over 90 years old.
The researchers also point out that the test can not be evaluated as a predictive assumption. "However, we hope that the score we have determined will enable physicians to identify their high-risk patients more quickly and easily," says Ganna. The test could also serve to remind individuals of a healthier lifestyle. The risk calculator is not meant to determine why someone dies. He merely establishes a statistical relationship between his own circumstances and the risk of death. (Ag)