H5N1 supervirus studies are published

Studies on human pathogenic bird flu pathogens are published

04/04/2012

The studies on laboratory-bred human-pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) viruses, which were initially closed for fear of bioterrorism, are now being published. After the authors have revised their studies, nothing speaks against a publication, according to the assessment of the Advisory Committee on Biosafety of the United States Government (NSABB), which had previously spoken out against publication.

For months, the dispute over the handling of the explosive results from the studies of Ron Fouchier, Professor at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam and Yoshihiro Kawaoka, Professor at the US University of Wisconsin. Out of consideration for the objections of the NSABB, the journals had „Science“ and „Nature“ For the time being waived publication, but under considerable protest. Recently, about two months ago, the World Health Organization (WHO) called for a comprehensive publication of the research results on the mutant avian influenza agents, which was also named Supervirus. Fouchier and Kawaoka had achieved a mutation in H5N1 viruses in two independent studies, which meant that bird flu could be transmitted from human to human via droplet infection, just like ordinary influenza.

Breeding of superviruses in the laboratory should clarify pandemic risk
By breeding the human pathogenic avian influenza virus in the laboratory, the researchers wanted to investigate the risk of a pandemic caused by bird flu. The result is clear: few mutations of the pathogens are enough to enable them to be transmitted from person to person. Here, however, the NSABB saw a significant risk of misuse of the study results for bioterrorism purposes and therefore recommended to refrain from a comprehensive publication or to disclose the data only in a censored version. The editors of the trade magazines „Science“ and „Nature“ Although protested massively, but held back according to the specifications of the NSABB with a publication, however for the time being. From other directions followed by significant criticism of the actions of the US authority. Especially since, according to most scientists, the data are also suitable for assessing the risks of an avian influenza pandemic and for preparing for possible mutations of H5N1 viruses. A specially convened panel of experts from the WHO, in which the study authors and the editors-in-chief of „Science“ and „Nature“ came to the conclusion that the reprint of a censored version would not be appropriate and the data should be fully published. The benefits clearly outweigh the risks, according to the WHO expert panel. Keiji Fukuda, WHO's senior health safety adviser, emphasized that the development of the human pathogenic H5N1 virus was clearly demonstrated, „how important it is to continue research on this virus.“

Comprehensive publication of studies on mutant avian influenza viruses required
For other researchers to use the results of Fouchier and Kawaoka, a comprehensive publication is needed. The NSABB has apparently now recognized this and is currently rowing back massively. Fouchier and Kawaoka have revised their study manuscripts and „the data described no longer seems likely to be misused to endanger public health or national security“, so the current position of the NSABB. What changes the researchers made to their manuscripts, however, remains in the dark. Also, NSABB's allegedly new evidence that knowledge about certain virus mutations may even be helpful in international monitoring of infectious diseases and health risks is questionable. Especially here from „new evidence“ actually can be no question, since the benefits of such basic research have long been known ... That just the NSABB now emphasizes the „Global cooperation, especially in preparation for an influenza pandemic, is based on free access to information“, seems like a bad joke. The same authority had recently fought for secrecy of the data. What are the reasons behind the NSABB's approach is hard to say. At first, the agency may have simply let itself be guided by the fear of terror, which is so widespread in the United States, and was clearly above the target.

Questionable secrecy of research results
The attempt to keep secret the results of the study of the mutant avian flu virus seemed from the beginning quite questionable, not least because the US government had co-financed the development of the new highly contagious virus itself. There is also a need for full disclosure of the data to assess the risk of a mutant avian influenza virus (H5N1) pandemic and to allow the development of new treatment options, according to WHO's position. If there is concern that the laboratory-bred pathogen will be used as a bioweapon, then the mutated virus would not have been bred, much less funded with public funds. Even the concern about accidental release of the mutated pathogens due to an accident seems justified at first sight. But those who have this concern may not invest in the development of such superviruses. Thus, the reasoning of the NSABB to establish a secrecy of the study results was not only highly controversial among experts.

US authority agreed publication of study results
With regard to the studies on the risks of a mutation of avian influenza agents, the NSABB has finally given in and approved a publication. Thus, the NSABB after massive criticism of their previous approach by the editorial of „Science“ and „Nature“, the WHO and numerous virologists worldwide, no longer against the announcement of the research results of Ron Fouchier and Yoshihiro Kawaoka. However, it is still not clear when the data will actually be published „Science“ and „Nature“ For the time being, the manuscripts will be reviewed by independent scientists, as is common practice before the publication of research papers, according to the science magazines.

New guidelines for research on specific pathogens
At a minimum, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) issued new guidelines last week for the „Dual-use Reearch“ (literally „Dual-benefit research“) now clearly states in the US how to deal with research in the future that could also be misused for the purposes of bioterrorism. The NIH Directive identifies 15 pathogens and poisons that should be monitored more closely by the authorities in the future, when research is done on them. The listed pathogens include, for example, the H5N1 viruses, anthrax pathogens and ebolaviruses. US federal agencies are urged to let the White House know within 60 days how many publicly funded studies are affected. All of the studies concerned should now be investigated with a view to possible misuse as a bioweapon and, if necessary, defused or no longer financially supported, according to the NIH Directive. Although the Directive has no longer had any impact on H5N1 virus research results, in the future it could possibly help to avoid such disputes.

Overestimated risk of bird flu pandemic?
However, the risk of an avian influenza pandemic may have been overestimated, according to a recent study by researchers at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York. For the actual infection numbers are significantly higher, as stated by the WHO, wrote the US researchers in the journal „Science“. Correspondingly, the number of deaths must be allocated to a far greater number of people affected, which would make mortality much lower than previously thought. WHO data assume that there are only 584 bird flu cases in humans worldwide (since 2003), with 345 deaths as a result of the infection. Accordingly, the assumed lethality was around 60 percent. However, as the scientists around Taia T. Wang and Peter Palese of the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York declared, the official numbers of the WHO are doubtful.

For example, the evaluation of twenty existing studies on H5N1 infection revealed that approximately one to two percent of the more than 12,500 study participants had evidence of past avian influenza in their blood. In fact, only serious illnesses are recorded, in which patients have to go to the hospital and anyway have poor chances of survival, the US researchers reported in late February in the journal „Science“. If - as in the studies evaluated - two percent of the risk group worldwide already have been infected with the virus, millions of people would already have a bird flu infection behind them, without suspecting, said the US scientists. Under certain circumstances, the number of bird flu-related deaths is significantly higher than previously thought, Wang and colleagues continued. The death rate, however, is in any case overestimated by the WHO, with at the same time far too small set infection numbers, stressed the US researchers. An avian influenza pandemic would probably have far fewer devastating consequences than previously thought. (Fp)

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Image: Gerd Altmann (image is a tracing)

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