Swine flu is no reason to panic

Return of the swine flu? Two deaths in Lower Saxony and 15 illnesses in Hesse. Ministries therefore call on the population for flu vaccination. But now is cause for panic?

04/01/2011

After two deaths from the swine flu in Lower Saxony have occurred, dominated the topic again Germany-wide headlines. And the politicians of other states are forced to take action. Thus, the Hessian social minister Stefan Grüttner (CDU) as well as his Lower Saxony colleague Aygül Özkan (CDU) again called for flu vaccine. But the two deaths in Lower Saxony are a reason for renewed panic?

Swine flu deaths no cause for panic
The current deaths of a three-year-old girl and a 51-year-old with significant chronic pre-existing illnesses in the opinion of the experts do not provide a cause for panic, as does Professor Hans-Dieter Klenk of the Institute of Virology at the University Hospital Marburg opposite the radio station „hr- INFO“ explained. Even though the World Health Organization declared the swine flu pandemic to be over in August, the H1N1 virus was expected to re-emerge as part of the seasonal flu season, according to the experts. And the H1N1 virus is not yet classified as more dangerous than other pathogens that also circulate in Germany, explained Dr. med. Christian Meyer of the Bernhard Nocht Institute (BNI) for tropical medicine in Hamburg opposite the „Frankfurter Rundschau“. Thus, according to most experts, the health risk from the common flu is far higher than the threat from the H1N1 pathogen. In the case of the swine flu pandemic, the situation was also fundamentally different, because „At that time, the hitherto largely unknown pathogen emerged outside the flu season“, explained Dr. Winfried Kern from the University of Freiburg. „Now we are in the middle of the influenza season“, so that the swine flu cases are of no particular cause for concern, Dr. core.

Hessian Minister of Social Affairs calls for flu vaccination
In view of the expected high level of the seasonal flu epidemic and the 15 proven swine flu cases in Hesse at the end of January - 11 were added in December alone - Hessian Minister of Social Affairs Grüttner urged the population once again to be vaccinated. This year's seasonal flu vaccine not only works against the common influenza virus but also against swine flu, as Grüttner announced. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in Berlin also advises against vaccination because, depending on the severity of the flu epidemic, every year in Germany there are between 8,000 and 10,000 deaths. That while doing the H1N1 pathogen, „which circulated again during the influenza season in the southern hemisphere, when seasonal influenza will reappear in our country as well“, stressed Professor Hans-Dieter Klenk. „Every year comes the flu epidemic, and every year people die from it“, added a spokeswoman for the RKI. Thus, the current deaths by H1N1 are by no means the first in Germany after the official end of the pandemic. „Already in October a case became known“, in which a 20-year-old woman, who also suffered from chronic pre-existing conditions, died after a H1N1 infection in multi-organ failure, reported the spokeswoman of the RKI.

High point of flu epidemic in late January / early February
How severe the flu epidemic will actually be this year, according to the Freiburg doctor Dr. med. Winfried Kern so far hardly estimable. Experts expect the peak of this year's flu season at the end of January / beginning of February. Subsequently, in March takes „the number of reported cases usually decreases again“, explained Dr. Core. According to the RKI, 110 cases of influenza have been detected in the current flu season until the beginning of December, of which 32 have been shown to be caused by the H1N1 virus. According to the spokeswoman of the RKI, another 50 influenza cases are unclear. It is thus possible that the number of unreported cases is considerably higher and because the swine flu is no longer notifiable, it remains unclear how many people have actually already died of the H1N1 pathogen, said the RKI spokeswoman. However, the current figures do not provide a reason for panic, according to the assessment of the RKI. „Only if two daily deaths caused by H1N1 occur in the coming weeks, this would be unusual and would give cause for concern,“, stressed Core. Generally also recommends the Freiburg doctor „Patients with underlying diseases“ to get vaccinated“, especially for older people over the age of 60 and chronically ill, a corresponding vaccination is recommended. „It is not too late for the vaccine against influenza“, stressed Kern, because the time to the expected peak of the flu epidemic is still sufficient to build a complete protection after vaccination - this would take about two weeks.

H1N1 pathogens do not just disappear
In the course of the swine flu pandemic had H1N1 pathogens „Last year, the previously circulating virus types were largely displaced and spread across the globe“, explained Dr. Core. And although the WHO declared the pandemic to have ended definitively in August 2010, the WHO Special Adviser on Influenza Pandemics, Keiji Fukuda, warned even then that the virus would not be out of the world at the end of the pandemic. Also Dr. Christian Meyer from the BNI explained that the Germans have to be prepared for the fact that the virus H1N1 will appear again and again in the flu season, because „something like that does not just disappear again.“ Thus, the current cases are probably only the beginning of a scenario to be expected annually in the future. (Fp)

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Picture: Gerd Altmann