More than every third German is demented

Nursing report 2010: More than one in three Germans will be demented: dementia diseases will increase significantly in the future.

30.11.2010

More than one in three Germans suffers from dementia in the course of their lives - and the trend is rising rapidly. In the course of demographic change and the associated aging of the population, the number of dementia diseases has risen sharply in recent years, with considerable consequences for health and long-term care insurance.

Dementia diseases are increasing in men and women
According to the Barmer-GEK Nursing Report 2010, 58 percent of men and 76 percent of women expect to become old-aged and in need of care over the course of their lives. Significant cost increases are associated with the rise in dementia-related illnesses for health and long-term care funds, which, according to the figures from the nursing report, threaten to push the health system to its limits. As part of the Nursing Report 2010, the Center for Social Policy of the University of Bremen analyzed the data of deceased insured persons over the age of 60 on behalf of Barmer GEK. The scientists came to the conclusion that in the past 29 percent of men and 47 percent of women at the time of their death were already dementing.

The general need for long-term care has also increased massively in recent years due to the growing number of older people, according to the conclusion of the nursing report. Because the higher the age, the greater the probability of becoming confused, forgetful, frail and in need of care, said the scientists of the University of Bremen. For example, among the deceased male GEK insured, the proportion of those who received care benefits before their death increased from around 40 percent in 2001 to 47 percent in 2009. Women also received approximately seven percent more care during the same period, an increase from 60 to 67 percent. Overall, today more than one in two relies on care services over the course of his life, according to the nursing report.

By 2060, the number of dementia patients will double
According to the scientists in the Nursing Report 2010, currently about 1.2 million suffer from dementia in Germany, whereby the number of illnesses in the opinion of the experts in the coming years will increase considerably. The researchers at the University of Bremen assume that by the year 2030 already 1.8 million people with dementia will live in Germany and that the number will increase to 2.5 million by 2060. According to the scientists, the numbers result directly from the demographic change or the fact that more and more people reach a higher age. With the predicted development, the share of dementia patients in the total population will more than double within the next 50 years - from the current 1.5 percent to 3.8 percent in 2060, according to the nursing report. „This really concerns us all“, the study author Heinz Rothgang from the University of Bremen emphasized. Because the costs associated with the increasing number of dementia illnesses will put the health system before a significant stress test.

Two-thirds of those with dementia are in need of care and the cost of care for dementia patients is 10,000 euros higher each year than non-dementia patients, explained Heinz Rothgang. For example, in the next 50 years, the cost of care could increase in the tens of billions. Also Rolf-Ulrich Schlenker, board member of Barmer GEK was alarmed by the results of the Nursing Report 2010: „The numbers paint an uncomfortable scenario.“

Criticism of the planned care reform
The study author Heinz Rothgang explained that based on the current study results, a deficit in long-term care insurance should already be expected in 2012 or at the latest in 2013. The Pflegerereform announced by the Federal Minister of Health Philipp Rösler (FDP) for the coming year does not help, according to the experts. Dangling and Rothgang went with the plans of the Union and FDP anyway hard to court and criticized the planned introduction of a private supplementary insurance, which is financed by additional premiums to be anchored as a new capital pillar in long-term care insurance. This planned construction of a capital pillar in long-term care insurance does not bring any direct financial relief and avoids the problems of the future, said Rothgang and Schlenker unanimously. Instead, the two experts favored further general premium increases to offset the cost explosion in long-term care insurance. (Fp)

Also read:
Dementia and Alzheimer's
Dementia becomes a common disease
Age dementia in Germany on the rise
Alzheimer's: Vitamin B can prevent dementia
Men more often affected by memory impairment

Picture: Rainer Sturm