Health insurance companies do not expect a deficit for 2011

According to the GKV-estimator circle, the statutory health insurance companies do not expect a deficit for the year 2011

25/01/2011

The statutory health insurance will most likely end the 2011 financial year without a deficit. Apparently, the amendments to the law adopted as part of the health care reform have had their first effects. According to an evaluation of the GKV circle of experts, to which also the association of the legal health insurance (GKV) belongs, can very probably be prevented this year a minus. However, independent health experts assume that the financial situation of the health insurances will intensify next year.

Circle of estimators: Positive result expected
The Federal Government has decided in the health care reform numerous ausparmausnahmen in health. An evaluation submitted by the GKV circle of estimates predicted a positive result for the current year. The main reason for this is likely to be the increase in regular cash contributions from 14.6 to 15.5 percent. Again and again, the health insurance companies emphasize in their publications that, for example, an additional contribution could be prevented because the contribution rate was increased at the turn of the year. A total of 13 health insurances of the approximately 160 statutory health insurance funds have to demand an additional lump sum from their members despite the premium adjustment.

Further positive effects were achieved through savings in pharmaceuticals, clinics and doctors. As a result of the good economic situation, employees earn higher wages and thus automatically pay higher cash contributions. The time of short-time work seems to have been overcome for now. However, hindrances to private health insurance are likely to be a hindrance. Since the beginning of the year, higher earners can more easily switch to private health insurance. A veritable wave of change, according to some health insurance but so far has failed.

Billion deficit could be averted
As recently as last year, the health fund was predicted to lose around € 11 billion. At the end of the year, however, it became clear that the additional contributions levied by some funds and numerous austerity measures implemented in advance were sufficient to generate an additional revenue of around 300 million euros even in 2010. The surplus is used to replenish the Health Fund's liquidity reserve as required by law. This fund is u.a. used, for example, to fill up the health insurance funds of deficit health insurance funds, to finance the planned social compensation and the supplementary contribution for the socially disadvantaged (Social Welfare, ALG II).

Health insurance companies will end the year 2011 without a deficit
According to the circle of evaluators, good forecasts for health fund revenues can be made for a long time now. Health economists have revised up the expected revenue by 500 million to 181.6 billion euros. According to the GKV circle of valuers, the good economy will continue to produce more revenue. Of this additional revenue could not go out because of the economic crisis last year. The allocations from the fund will continue to amount to a stable 178.9 billion euros. The allocations to the health insurance funds were, according to the GKV reported with 170.3 billion euros, slightly lower than the estimated expenditure. The actual expenditure calculated so far is reduced by 200 million euros. The additional contribution, which was collected by 13 funds, resulted in an additional income of 750 million euros. Currently, of the estimated 51.4 million contributory health insureds, approximately 8.1 million people are required to pay additional contributions. However, these additional revenues were not included in the published forecast. The additional revenue will be reckoned with at the end of the year. The circle of evaluators regularly announces forecasts to measure profitability. The county includes representatives of the GKV, the Federal Ministry of Health and the Federal Insurance Office.

Additional contributions can be avoided
The majority of the funds and the black-and-yellow coalition assume that this year no other health insurance company will make an additional contribution. The measures adopted to date seem to be sufficient to not burden the insured additionally. The health insurances fear the additional contributions, since many affected persons make use of their right of exchange. This in turn leads to a loss of membership, which, for example, the DAK was massively felt in the last year. Significant gains, however, could register the health insurance companies who benefited from the change.

Positive outlook for the next few years questionable
Whether such good numbers can be predicted for the next few years is questionable. Independent experts certify the statutory health insurance heavy years. With demographic change, healthcare spending will continue to rise. More massive savings and cuts are already apparent. For example, the German Trade Union Confederation reported on the basis of an analysis that the additional contributions will be levied across the board for all members over the next few years. A similar assessment is also made by the independent health expert Prof. Dr. med. Wassem from the University of Duisburg-Essen. According to him, a deficit can be prevented by the measures taken. From 2012, however, the situation could get worse again. By then, more health insurance companies will have to raise additional contributions. The Federal Government apparently also assumes such a development. Since 2011, the funds can determine the amount of the additional contributions themselves. (Sb)

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Image: Verena N..