One in five had swine flu

Swine flu pandemic: More than 20 percent of the population is infected

27.01.2013

In 2009, the swine flu pandemic had initially caused a virtual state of health in the health sector around the world before turning out to be far less dangerous than originally feared. An international research team led by Maria van Kerkhove and Siddhivinayak Hirve from „Global influenza programs“ The World Health Organization (WHO) has now published in the journal „Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses“ presented a meta-study on the infection rates with H1N1 viruses. Accordingly, more than 20 percent of the world's population have become infected with the virus. Fortunately, mortality was extremely low.

According to the researchers, significantly more people have been infected with the swine flu virus than originally thought. In addition, be „The global impact of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic is not well understood“, write the scientists. They see their current work as a contribution to a better understanding of the swine flu pandemic 2009 / 2010. The evaluation of existing epidemiological investigation allows a realistic estimate of the actual infection numbers. The swine flu pandemic originated in early 2009 in Mexico, from where the pathogens spread all over the world. There was a great deal of public fear of a potentially deadly threat. Hastily a vaccine was presented to protect against the pathogens. However, the suspicion soon arose that this could be associated with significant side effects, and millions of doses of vaccine initially remained until they were destroyed in late 2011. In August 2010, WHO declared the pandemic over.

Children and adolescents with the highest swine flu infection rate
The international research team around Kerkhove and Hirve has as part of his meta-study „Data from 27 published / unpublished studies from 19 countries / administrative regions“ analyzed worldwide. The data came from, among others, Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan and the Netherlands. Based on the detection of specific antibodies against the H1N1 virus in more than 90,000 blood samples, the scientists determined how many people in the respective regions have actually been infected with the swine flu pathogens. An age-specific evaluation of the data was also carried out. Overall, about 24 percent of people had antibodies to the swine flu in their blood, the WHO experts report. Children between the ages of five and 19 are 47 percent and children between the ages of zero and four are 36 percent, researchers said. Even in the uninvestigated countries comparable infection rates could be assumed.

Low mortality due to swine flu infections
In their recent metastudy, the scientists confirm previous year studies that also found that significantly more people than those estimated by the WHO under one million worldwide have been infected with the virus by the end of the pandemic, and the number of Deaths was significantly higher than the assumed 18,500. Whether or not 280,000 H1N1 virus deaths have already been reported, as noted in last year's study, remains unanswered. Because the high infection rate in the population of more than 20 percent, is compared to a relatively low mortality. The researchers led by Maria van Kerkhove and Siddhivinayak Hirve conclude that only 0.02 percent of patients died as a result of the swine flu infection. „Our findings provide unique insights into the global impact of the H1N1 pandemic, highlighting the need for standardization of seroepidemiological studies and their inclusion in pandemic plans“, so the conclusion of the researchers. (Fp)

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Picture credits: Gerd Altmann