Flu wave goes back slowly

Decline in new infections indicates a decline in the flu epidemic

03/26/2015

After tens of thousands of influenza infections in Germany have been recorded in recent weeks, the first signs of a decline in the flu epidemic are now recognizable. The Working Group on Influenza of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reports that the flu activity nationwide in the 12th calendar week has fallen again compared to the previous week.

In the twelfth reporting week, according to the RKI, just under 4,000 were „Clinically laboratory-confirmed influenza cases“ determine. Overall, the number of infections in the wake of the current flu epidemic has increased to more than 60,000. Despite the falling trend, the flu activity in Germany is still at an elevated level. Although the peak seems to have passed, but in particular in East Germany, there are still some yellow-red areas on the map of the RKI „significantly increased influenza activity“ prevails. In most regions on the overview map, however, only one „low elevated influenza activity“ to record.

High point of the flu epidemic survived
„That was a clear wave this season“, becomes the influenza expert of the RKI, Silke Buda, from the news agency „dpa“ cited. The highlight was located around the eighth and ninth calendar week. Currently, the infection numbers are already much lower. Well over 11,000 new infections were reported in the ninth calendar week, according to the Working Group on Influenza, whereas in the eleventh calendar week there was already a significant reduction in infections, which should continue in the coming week. The culmination of the flu activity seems to be over, which should not only make things easier for employers, but also for the doctors.

Vaccine did not match the circulating virus
The reason for the high numbers of infections is mentioned among other things, an inadequate vaccination of the risk groups and also this year's vaccine did not fit optimally to the circulating influenza viruses, which are 80 percent of the type A H3N2, so the release of the „dpa“ citing the Robert Koch Institute. Also vaccinated were therefore less well protected from the flu, as in the years before. So far, 60,588 clinically-laboratory-confirmed influenza infections have been reported to the RKI and a moderate increase in infections is expected in the coming weeks as well. Moreover, according to the RKI, a considerable number of unreported cases can be assumed, since by far not every influenza infection is reported to the RKI. Although there are no classifications of an average flu outbreak, according to the experts, it can be assumed that at the end of the current flu season unusually high numbers of infections and deaths will be found.

Increased number of flu deaths expected
So far, according to the Working Group influenza „181 deaths from influenza infection“ such as „five clinically-epidemiologically confirmed deaths“, related to influenza outbreaks in homes for the elderly, to which RKI Overall, the numbers of deaths in the course of the respective flu season, however, are difficult to estimate due to the dark figure. The evaluation of individual years by the RKI shows that the range in the past ten years was between 7,000 and just over 11,000 deaths. An exception was the flu season 2008/2009 when an estimated 18,000 people died as a result of a flu infection. (Fp)