Experts fear many more deaths from the flu

Current flu epidemic could cause more deaths than influenza viruses in previous years

06/03/2015

Nearly 40,000 people have been infected with influenza viruses in the current flu season so far. In the past week alone 12,000 people fall ill. Experts believe that the flu epidemic has reached its peak. One of the reasons for the high number of flu patients is a mutation of the vaccine that makes the agent less effective. Experts therefore fear more flu deaths this year than in previous years. Particularly at risk are the elderly.

Influenza can be life threatening
Headache, body aches, chills, high fever, nausea and vomiting and cough, runny nose - who suffers from these complaints, goes to bed. Usually the symptoms last between seven and 14 days, then the flu is over. For the elderly and chronically ill with a weakened immune system, an influenza infection can even be life-threatening, resulting in fatalities. Much less often, even young, healthy people die from the flu.

Experts fear that the death toll in the current flu season could exceed that of previous years. Because this winter, many more patients go to the doctor for respiratory problems. The majority of those affected are between 39 and 59 years old. „It is about 60 percent of the flu, "said Silke Buda, head of the working group influenza at the Berlin Robert Koch Institute (RKI), in an interview with the news agency „dpa“. „The current influenza season is certainly one of the heavier waves of recent years. "Although 12,000 new flu cases were reported last week, the number of visits to the doctor has not increased, experts say, as a sign that the current flu epidemic has reached its peak.

The number of flu deaths can only be estimated at one year
Measured by the high number of illnesses, the current influenza wave is comparable to the 2012/2013 season. Of the most common influenza virus type A H3N2, the current situation is more similar to winter 2008/2009. At that time, more people died of influenza than in previous years. Eight years ago there were 18,000 and two years ago about 20,000 flu deaths. However, Buda stresses that it is too early to talk about increased mortality in this flu season. The estimate on the basis of the data of the Federal Statistical Office can only be made one year apart.

On average, there are between 8,000 and 11,000 flu deaths in Germany every year. This is about twice as many people as in traffic accidents killed. „However, there is no average flu outbreak, so the number of flu deaths also varies from year to year. "Buda explains that every season varies greatly with their individual characteristics.

Mutation of influenza virus weakens protective effect of influenza vaccine
About 80 percent of influenza patients have been infected with the influenza subtype A H3N2. This subtype has caused severe flu in previous years. Influenza A viruses are more likely to change. That's why the current flu vaccine is less effective. The virus is mutated so that the protein contained in the vaccine no longer matches the surface protein of the virus. „For people who used to have H3N2 flu in the past, there is no recognition effect for the immune system, "Buda says, causing more people to become ill and because the vaccine is less or not at all effective, vaccinated old people in particular endangered with pre-existing diseases. „The weaker the immune system is, the harder it can adequately respond to a new influenza virus, "the expert continues, adding that there is a risk of complications, and four times over the past 25 years, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) Virus mutation came.

WHO issues recommendations for the next season's vaccine each spring. „Despite all efforts, it remains difficult to determine the exact types of influenza subtype against which the vaccine must act in advance, "explains Carlos Guzman, an expert at the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research in Braunschweig, in an interview with the news agency Buda reports that a universal vaccine, which could also act against variants of the subtypes, is currently in the basic research stage. „For the next few years, this is not foreseeable. "Both experts nevertheless recommend that they be vaccinated against flu again this fall. (Ag)

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