1.5 million new diabetics expected

Rapid rise in diabetes morbidity rate: By 2030, around 1.5 million people in Germany will be newly diagnosed with type II diabetes

01.06.2011

According to an analysis by the German Diabetes Center, the number of diabetics will increase by 1.5 million by the year 2030. As a result, the number of people affected is increasing more than previously assumed by health experts. By a healthy and nutrition-conscious lifestyle, however, the rapid increase even without drugs could be stopped.

Around 1.5 million people over the age of 45 will become ill with Type II diabetes in the next twenty years. A large proportion of new cases could be avoided, as experts warn. Because a healthy diet and a lot of exercise could prevent a break-out of the chronic metabolic disease. The estimate is based on a survey by the German Diabetes Center DDZ.

More and more people get diabetes type II
Around six million people in Germany suffer from type 2 diabetes. A few decades ago, it was mainly older people that were affected, but today it is increasingly children, adolescents and young adults who become diabetics at a young age. The main reasons for this are overweight and a predominantly unhealthy diet. Despite numerous educational campaigns, many young people resort to fast food, coke and co.

Men especially affected
A particularly rapid increase is predicted by the diabetes center in the 55- to 74-year-old male age group. In a model-based calculation, researchers predict an increase of about one million new male patients over the next two decades. That's a whopping 79 percent more than today. As women generally live healthier lives, there is also an increase here, but this is somewhat lower than for men. By 2030, approximately 500,000 women will be diagnosed with type II diabetes. This corresponds to an increase of 47 percent.

East-south gradient at morbidity
Based on the total share of the German population, about eight percent of adults already suffer from type 2 diabetes. It is striking that, according to analyzes by the Vice-Director of the Institute for Biometry and Epidemiology at the DDZ in Düsseldorf, Dr. med. med. Wolfgang Rathmann, a clearly recognizable northeast-southwest divide in the rate of morbidity. While in Halle already twelve percent of older people from the age of 45 on suffer from diabetes, for example in southern Augsburg only six percent. Germany also occupies a sad top spot in European comparison. "In the diabetes atlas of the International Diabetes Federation, Germany occupies a leading position," explained Dr. Rathmann. However, the data must be treated with caution, because there are differences in the data collection, limited the physician. "However, it is certain that the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus will continue to increase in the coming decades," says the doctor.

A not to be underestimated proportion of new cases could be avoided, as experts report. Numerous studies have already shown that lifestyle change in the form of physical exercise, maintenance or attainment of normal weight, and a major diet consisting of whole grains, vegetables, and fruits could prevent around half of all diabetes. "If every second adult in the elderly population with a diabetes precursor successfully and permanently participated in measures for better nutrition and weight loss, according to the current study, 21 percent of future illnesses in men and 31 percent in women could be avoided," she stresses Dr. Rathmann.

Meaningful precaution can protect against diabetes
There are a number of studies that consistently prove that diet and exercise are two key elements of diabetes prevention. According to a study by the University of Leicester, green leafy vegetables in particular lower the risk of disease. In particular, cabbage vegetables such as broccoli, cauliflower and spinach showed a very positive effect during the course of the study. If subjects ate about 100 grams of cabbage a day, the risk of diabetes could be reduced by 14 percent. Another evidence-based study by the Harvard Medical School“ examined the effects of whole grains. If you use wholegrain bread, brown rice or whole wheat pasta instead of white flour products, you can reduce your risk by another third. Who then regularly balancing and endurance sports operates, who need to worry almost no longer and protects themselves from diabetes type II. The first signs of diabetes type II disease are excessive thirst, blurred vision and poor wound healing. Those who notice such symptoms, should take a blood test at the family doctor. (Sb)

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Picture: Thomas Schubert